• THE GRID
When the Buyers Run Out of Cash
I keep a list of charts that change how I see markets. Last month, one from Epoch AI went straight to the top.
Two lines. One rising fast — hyperscaler capital spending. One nearly flat — their cash flow from operations.
The lines cross this quarter.
By Q3, the five biggest cloud companies will spend more on AI than they earn. Oracle has already crossed that line. Amazon is crossing right now.
This isn't opinion. It's math.
The combined capex guide for 2026 is nearly $690 billion. That's 81% more than 2025. And triple 2024 levels.
J.P. Morgan says AI capex has gone from 33% of hyperscaler cash flow in 2023 to an estimated 93% this year. Nearly every dollar earned goes into building AI.
Soon, they'll need more than every dollar.
| 2026 Hyperscaler Capex $690B | Cash Flow to Capex 93% | |
| Hyperscaler Bonds YTD $144B | Bond Issuance All 2025 $83B | |
When Starlink Completes Its Global Takeover...
It's set to connect 3 billion people who've never had reliable internet.
That's the biggest connectivity explosion in human history.
Wall Street is focused on SpaceX.
But the smartest money is looking at a backdoor play almost no one's talking about.
A Potential IPO company already positioned to profit from every single new Starlink user — in 170 countries — before they ever go public.
And if you act fast, you can invest now at $0.52/share.
But don't wait.
Their last round sold out with 59,000+ total investors. Once word spreads — it could be too late.
Once capex tops cash flow, the math changes. Growth gets funded by debt. Not profits.
A company spending its own cash can slow down quietly. A company on borrowed money has far less room.
And most of that spending turns into electricity demand. Wood Mackenzie projects U.S. data center capacity will grow from 24 GW to 110 GW by 2030 — a fourfold increase in four years. Every gigawatt needs turbines, transformers, and transmission. All of it adds to the capex pile.
The growth is real. But the funding model behind it is starting to strain.
Last month, the Bank for International Settlements raised a flag in its annual report. The BIS said the race for AI market share "may have led to overinvestment." It warned the boom could turn into "a protracted investment bust."
Those are careful words from a careful institution.
I'm not calling a bust. These are among the richest companies in history. They have bond markets, credit lines, and patient shareholders.
But follow the chain. These five companies are the largest single buyers of new electricity in America. Utilities are building hundreds of billions in grid capacity to serve them. Grid builders carry record backlogs tied to their spending.
If that capex slows — even a little — power demand slows with it. Every utility, every grid builder, every transformer maker riding this wave would feel it.
Five balance sheets now drive America's energy buildout. That kind of concentration should keep every energy investor up at night.
• RESISTANCE
New York Says No
Last Tuesday, Governor Kathy Hochul picked up a pen and made history.
She signed an executive order banning new hyperscale data centers in New York State. Any project needing 50 megawatts or more? Frozen. For up to one year.
New York is now the first state with a data center moratorium.
Governor Hochul signed an executive order on July 14 pausing environmental permits for data centers using 50 MW or more. The state will build a new regulatory framework — including a Generic Environmental Impact Statement — before lifting the moratorium. The state legislature separately passed a bill targeting projects at just 20 MW.
The order halts state environmental permits while regulators draft new rules. Hochul said she won't lift the ban until AI companies help share the cost burden of the energy they consume.
The legislature went further. It passed the Responsible Data Center Development Act. That bill drops the bar to 20 megawatts. It creates separate electric and water rate classes for data centers.
Hochul hasn't signed the bill yet. But the executive order is already in force.
And New York isn't alone. Grassroots groups have more than doubled in three months. Data Center Watch counted 833 active opposition groups by March — up from 396 at the end of 2025. Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana have the most.
More than 300 bills were filed in statehouses in the first six weeks of 2026. In Q1, opponents blocked or delayed 75 projects worth $130 billion. Moratorium bills have been filed in 11 states so far.
None had passed. But New York just proved a governor can act alone.
The backlash isn't local anymore. It's statewide. And it just got its first real win.
• BLACKOUT WATCH
Three Risks the Market Is Ignoring
Half of 2026's planned data center capacity may never arrive. Of the roughly 12 GW announced for this year, only about 5 GW is under active construction. The rest faces delays or outright cancellation. Power connections — not permits — are the main bottleneck now. The buildout is running into the grid it depends on.
NERC flagged two U.S. regions at "elevated risk" this summer. New England and the Pacific Northwest face tight margins under extreme heat. Record solar and battery additions have helped most other areas. But demand growth and the El Niño pattern keep these two corners of the grid exposed heading into August.
Utilities asked regulators for $18.6 billion in electric and gas rate increases in just the first half of 2026. Q2 alone set a record — $9.2 billion in electric and gas rate increase filings, up 26% from Q2 last year. Those Q2 requests could hit more than 56 million electric and gas customers. A big chunk of the infrastructure behind those rate hikes is being built for data centers that haven't arrived yet.
The biggest risk isn't a blackout. It's a buildout no one asked for — paid by customers who can't say no.
Disclaimer*: Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering.
Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.
The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.
Pro forma revenue and EBITDA, includes full year numbers of the businesses acquired throughout 2025.
