• THE GRID
Goldman's 5-Gigawatt Tell
Two numbers. Same report. One went up. One went down.
Goldman Sachs updated its data center power forecast over the weekend. The bank raised its end-of-2026 capacity estimate by 5 gigawatts. To 64 GW total.
Then it trimmed 2027. By the same amount. Down to 90 GW.
Both years still show 38% demand growth. That's 12 GW of new power this year. And 17 GW next year. The AI buildout is not slowing down. Not yet.
| 2026 Capacity ↑ 64 GW | 2027 Capacity ↓ 90 GW | |
| Growth Rate 38% | New Demand '26 +12 GW | |
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But this is the first time Goldman has trimmed an outer-year number in this sector. Every prior update went higher. So what changed?
Not demand. That's still surging. Equipment makers confirm it on their balance sheets. Eaton just posted $8.5 billion in quarterly revenue — a record. Vertiv's earnings jumped 60%. Solaris Energy raised $1.25 billion in fresh debt last week. Capital keeps pouring into power.
"While data centers remain a key growth driver, we are benefiting from robust demand across our end markets."
But public opinion is moving the other way.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in June found just 33% of Americans approve of the pace of data center building. More than half — 57% — said they'd oppose one near their home. Only 14% would welcome a big tech project in their town.
The politics are catching up. More than 300 local moratoriums or bans have been enacted against data center projects. Texas froze new permits. New York paused approvals for large facilities. Michigan wants data centers to pay their full grid costs.
Goldman concluded the opposition has had "limited near-term impact" on the pipeline. Their words. But they still shaved 5 GW off next year.
The 2026 raise is the safe call. Shovels are turning. Contracts are signed. No protest sign stops what's already built.
But 2027? That's when new permits matter. That's when site approvals matter. That's when local votes start to shape the grid.
Five gigawatts is not a crisis. It's a whisper. But in a sector that has only known upward revisions, it's the loudest one yet.
Goldman just told us the backlash is no longer abstract. It's a 5-gigawatt trim. And it may only be the start.
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• WIRED IN
Four Signals, One Direction
The money is loud this week. Four data points from four corners of the power map — all pointing the same way.
Solaris Energy (SEI) closed a $1.25 billion bond sale on October 1. Senior notes at 7%, due 2032. The deal was upsized from $1 billion — demand from buyers ran hot. This is Solaris's second big raise this year. They did $1.3 billion in May. That's $2.55 billion in debt issuance in five months — including refinancing of higher-cost debt — aimed at expanding off-grid power for data centers and other industrial sectors.
The equipment side looks just as strong. Vertiv (VRT) posted Q2 revenue of $3.27 billion — up 24% from a year ago. Adjusted earnings per share hit $1.52, a 60% jump. The company raised its full-year outlook. Again. Every quarter in 2026, Vertiv has beaten estimates and lifted guidance.
Down in West Texas, a quieter deal says just as much. Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) signed a six-year contract to provide 76 MW of behind-the-meter power to a data center. The setup: about 40 natural gas generators. Deployment starts this quarter. Revenue begins in Q1 2027. Gas is still the fastest path to power.
And on the longest end of the timeline: the Reuters Fusion Energy 2026 conference wrapped yesterday in Boston. More than 250 leaders showed up — reactor developers, utilities, and data center operators. Fusion is still years from a single commercial watt. But data center companies are at the table now, scouting supply for a future that doesn't exist yet.
Capital is chasing power in every form — bonds, equipment orders, gas generators, and technology that hasn't lit a single bulb. That tells you everything about how tight the market is.
• VOLTAGE
The Next Bottleneck Isn't a Generator
A report landed last week that had nothing to do with turbines or fuel. It was about heat.
Research and Markets published its data center cooling forecast on October 1. The number: $37.62 billion by 2033. That's a 16.1% annual growth rate.
Cooling used to be boring. Fans and air ducts. Not anymore.
AI chips run hot. A single high-density AI rack now draws over 100 kilowatts. Three years ago, a standard rack pulled 5 to 10 kW. That's a ten- to twenty-fold leap. Air cooling can't handle it.
Liquid cooling is the fix. Direct-to-chip systems. Immersion tanks. Rear-door heat exchangers. The technology is moving fast — and so is the money.
KKR acquired a majority stake in CoolIT Systems, a liquid cooling maker, at a valuation of $270 million. Schneider Electric acquired Motivair. Modine Manufacturing is adding factory capacity.
The part no one talks about: cooling comes before compute. You can't run chips without removing the heat they produce. A bottleneck in cooling shuts down a data center just as fast as a transformer shortage.
Every conversation about data center power focuses on making electricity. Almost no one asks about removing the heat it creates.
The next chokepoint in the AI power chain isn't a generator or a wire. It's a radiator.
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