The Rising Bills That Explain Why Consumers Feel Stuck

Deloitte’s latest U.S. consumer data reveals a clear contradiction: inflation has cooled, but people don’t feel financially lighter. Across income tiers, families reported higher grocery bills, higher utility costs, and less confidence in their ability to cover monthly essentials.

The sentiment isn’t emotional.
It’s arithmetic — and the math is tightening.

Consumers aren’t pulling back because they want to.
They’re pulling back because the basics cost more than they used to.

The November report showed several consistent trends:

• Grocery spending climbed month over month
• Housing and utility costs remain the top financial stressors
• Savings rates fell as more households covered bills with credit
• Discretionary spending slipped across categories
• Travel intentions softened heading into early 2026
• Families reported fewer “dollars left over” after essentials

This isn’t a crisis environment.
It’s a slow grind — and it’s reshaping spending behavior more than headline inflation numbers suggest.

Even as overall inflation cooled, several forces kept essential costs elevated:

• Grocery suppliers passed on earlier supply-chain increases
• Utility rates rose in multiple regions due to infrastructure costs
• Insurance premiums climbed across home and auto categories
• Rent growth slowed but remained historically high
• Frequent-use goods stayed sticky due to limited price competition
• Credit card interest amplified the cost of monthly purchases

Households aren’t responding to macro trends.
They’re responding to the prices they see every week.

The November data reshaped which sectors gained or lost momentum:

Gaining momentum:
• Discount and value-oriented grocers
• Utility providers with regulated pricing stability
• Private-label brands gaining share from premium products
• BNPL and budgeting apps supporting cash-flow management
• Retailers tied to consumables and recurring goods

Losing momentum:
• Big-ticket retail requiring discretionary income
• Mid-market brands squeezed between value and premium
• Restaurants and entertainment venues facing softer demand
• Apparel retailers dependent on seasonal surges
• Travel and leisure operators expecting a strong Q1 2026

Capital is following the consumer — and the consumer is following affordability.

Deloitte’s November breakdown points to a durable shift:

• Essentials will dominate household budgets into mid-2026
• Retailers will compete on value, not volume
• Financial stress will show up in reduced discretionary traffic
• Savings buffers will thin further without wage acceleration
• Consumers will plan purchases more cautiously
• Private-label brands will expand faster than national brands
• Retailers with strong pricing flexibility will outperform peers

The narrative of “cooling inflation” misses the underlying pattern:
Households aren’t feeling relief, because essentials carry the weight.

For 2026, spending models must be built around the core truth — consumers are prioritizing what they need, not what they want.

The real economy isn’t defined by inflation rates. It’s defined by the bills households pay every month — and those bills are still rising.

References

Deloitte. (2025, November). State of the U.S. Consumer: November 2025.
https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/consumer-pulse/state-of-the-us-consumer.html